Christ is Risen! Indeed He is Risen!
- A technological singularity would lead to a radical increase in economic (and population) growth rates. So far there have been three such singularities where steady growth was interrupted/replaced:
- A million or so years ago humans showed up and set up shop. After that, growth was slow, doubling every 250,000 years. Things were very stable and predictable; economic and population growth rates matched one another.
- 10,000 years ago, the farming revolution occurred. After that, the growth rate picked up , doubling every 1,000 years. Again, on the scale of the human life, things (to include a quality of life that was generally better than that of the previous epoch) were still pretty stable. Again, economic and population growth rates matched one another.
- 200 years ago, the industrial revolution occurred. For the past century, the population has doubled ever 15 years. During this time, economic growth has increasingly outpaced population growth, leading to a very large increase in quality of life, but also leading to constant change. This leads to three academic scenarios, plus Hanson’s:
- Optimistic: things continue to grow the way they are now, which would lead to some pretty unimaginable advances as things continue to double!
- Pessimistic: some catastrophe occurs (such growth is not sustainable)
- Happy medium: we avoid catastrophe and perhaps sacrifice some growth
- Hanson’s: the singularity leads to a new epoch that really goes off the charts
- The new growth rate – which should occur sometime within the next century – would be around a doubling every couple of weeks (based on extrapolating from previous jumps). Instead of doubling every 15 years, productivity would double every two weeks. Wow. That means investments double, etc. that fast.
- Only one thing on the horizon could have that kind of effect: artificial intelligence [BTW, I think energy could do it, but he doesn’t because energy only makes up 10% of the economy].
- 70% of the economy goes to compensation; AI would allow compensation rates to plummet.
- Economic growth will skyrocket. E.g. it takes 15-20 years to create an unskilled worker; 30 years to create a PhD. AI can do it instantaneously. Not only is labor cheap, great ideas are, too.
- Investment strategy: make sure you invest in scarce resources (e.g. land)
- Such a box is likely to come about in one of three ways
- Incremental advances. Software and hardware will improve until eventually we get it good enough.
- A great discovery. We figure out how intelligence works, complete with the necessary equations (assuming such a thing even exists – it may not).
- Porting software. When we create new computers and we want them to run old programs, we can either do it from scratch, incorporating the advances in hardware, or we can just create an emulator that makes the new machine like the old one and use the old software on it. This isn’t as efficient, but it is easy and effective. We build advanced machines, then create a brain emulator to run human software. It’s not as elegant and it lacks imagination, but it is likely to deliver AI before the others. We would continue to tinker with the output, figuring out ways to make it more efficient using trial and error.
The podcast goes on (as do the articles), but this whole thing raises some issues for us.
- Since the process would be controlled (at least at first), the ideal would be the creation of slave robots – entities that would do what was asked without raising a fuss (as with animal husbandry, we would pick and multiply the ones that were docile). Is this a problem? Is it a person, an animal, or simply a machine that acts like something more?
- What is a copy of myself? What have I done if I port my mind into something else? Is it human? Is it me? Is this just like “losing” yourself in an artificial scene (e.g. a video game or movie or book – or better yet, a play), or does its permanence mean something? Is making copies of yourself the moral equivalent of writing a book? When we create such machines (with living tissue or whatever), at what point have we created a zombie – or a soulless monster that acts human? If they have no souls of their own, is it possible for demons to come in and possess such automatons?
- Is this a world that will help lead to a holier society? Will it encourage virtue?
- So many questions. Science fiction has been doing a good job with this for a while. We’d better catch up.